Fabric market "gold nine silver ten" is now differentiated
For many fabric companies, this year's "gold nine silver ten" came some quiet, although this year's fabric market "gold nine silver ten" may not be as good as in previous years, but the industry generally believes that the fourth quarter market performance is still predictable, the last two months of market performance or will appear "carry-over" phenomenon.
Companies are more cautious about production
In September, affected by the soaring international oil prices, textile raw material prices began to rebound. PTA and ethylene glycol prices rose rapidly, and polyester filament prices also rose strongly. However, compared with the hot raw material market, the fabric market appears quite "calm".
According to the sample data monitoring of China Silk City network, the inventory of water jet and jet weaving enterprises in Shengze, Jiangsu Province, is maintained at 35.3 days, down 0.5 days from the end of August. Although the overall inventory of the market has declined, it is limited to the recent hot products, and the inventory of other products with flat sales has not been improved. The market is still short of large orders, and most manufacturers reflect that it takes a long time to return the final payment, and the inventory pressure of finished products is increased, so the start and production are more cautious.
China Textile City also pointed out in the recently released market conditions that although the variety of fabric operators listed in September has increased, the transaction is still relatively limited, and the market transaction is still dull in recent days, sales hotspots are still too few, and sales are still insufficient.
According to the past law, the annual "gold nine silver ten" is the "climbing period" of fabric enterprise sales, however, in recent years, "gold nine silver ten" seems to have been difficult to show a lively scene in short supply.
The productivity index of polyester increased after the holiday
From October 1, 2023, the domestic mainland polyester production base was increased to 7911 million tons, the direct spinning filament production capacity was increased to 42.38 million tons, and the polyester staple fiber production capacity was increased to 9.4 million tons.
Overall, the fourth quarter polyester filament market or shock down. With the gradual delivery of downstream and terminal winter orders, terminal demand or sold out in advance, the market atmosphere is cautious, and the supply pressure of polyester filament is highlighted. As inventories continue to grow, enterprises or negative hedging, the scale of production cuts expanded.
For weaving enterprises, although the price of raw materials is more difficult, the price reduction of raw materials is not good news. Lower raw material prices may become a means for customers to further reduce prices. Under the bad market environment this year, weaving enterprises are very strong, and their profits are very strong, and the fluctuation of a little raw material money may make the original money-making list become money-losing.
The market is expected to improve in future
Views on the traditional peak season, the relevant person in charge of fabric companies have different opinions. Some are optimistic, the confidence is that the order performance is good; Some expressed that they could not see through, and thought that the foreign trade market was too calm; There is also not optimistic that the recovery of terminal demand is less than expected, and the inventory of downstream clothing enterprises is high, which will affect the order.
However, when the vision of the forecast is more long-term, most business leaders are relatively positive about the performance of the market.
Overall, the fabric market in the first September of this year has been differentiated. Through research, we found that men's wear and functional clothing were the first to recover and have full toughness; With the further recovery of residents' consumption willingness, we expect that women's final consumption is expected to release flexibility, and the future fabric market is expected to further recover, but the competition will be more intense.
Guosheng Securities researcher Yang Ying judged that there is pressure on the global textile upstream industry in the first half of the year, mainly due to weak overseas clothing consumption expectations, and the brand's previous inventory backlog is high. Looking to the future, taking into account the final consumption of clothing, the destocking progress of downstream brands, and the current orders and performance of manufacturers, Yang Ying believes that the performance of most fabric companies is expected to gradually improve quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter.
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