Textile express
preamble
In the first half of the year, as the economy and society fully resumed normal operation, a series of policies to expand domestic demand and promote consumption took effect, market vitality gradually recovered, and urban and rural consumer markets became more active, showing a trend of recovery.
The proportion of online consumption increased steadily, the operation of physical stores continued to recover, the sales of green and upgraded goods grew rapidly, and residents' consumption of services continued to rebound.
01 The consumer market recovered rapidly in the first half of the year
In the first half of this year, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 22,758.8 billion yuan, an increase of 8.2% year-on-year and 2.4 percentage points higher than that in the first quarter. On a quarterly basis, the total retail sales of consumer goods in the second quarter increased by 10.7% year-on-year, 4.9 percentage points higher than that in the first quarter.
In terms of urban and rural markets, in the first half of this year, the retail sales of consumer goods in urban areas were 1,753.2 billion yuan, up by 8.1% year-on-year; Retail sales of consumer goods in rural areas reached 3,005.6 billion yuan, an increase of 8.4%, and sales in rural markets recovered faster than in urban areas. In the second quarter, retail sales of consumer goods in urban and rural areas increased by 10.7% and 10.8%, respectively, 5 and 4.6 percentage points higher than that in the first quarter.
In the first half of this year, the online retail sales of physical commodities in China grew by 10.8% year-on-year, 3.5 percentage points higher than that in the first quarter, maintaining rapid growth. It accounted for 26.6% of the total retail sales of consumer goods, an increase of 2.4 percentage points over the first quarter. The development of rural e-commerce has accelerated, and the platform monitoring big data shows that during the "618" period, the year-on-year growth rate of online retail sales in rural areas was 2.8 percentage points higher than that of all online retail sales.
With the continuous expansion and improvement of offline consumption scenarios and consumption experience, retail sales in physical stores continued to recover. In the first half of the year, the retail sales of physical stores above designated size increased by 5.1% year-on-year, the growth rate was 1.5 percentage points higher than the first quarter. Among them, the retail sales of convenience stores, department stores, specialty stores and brand specialty stores increased by 8.2%, 9.8%, 5.4% and 4.6% respectively.
In the first half of this year, retail sales of goods increased by 6.8% year-on-year, 1.9 percentage points higher than that in the first quarter. The value of more than 80% of the commodity categories of units above the quota has maintained growth, and the demand for upgraded commodities has continued to be released. The retail sales of cosmetics, gold, silver and jewelry, sports and entertainment products, books, newspapers and magazines by units above designated size increased by 8.6%, 17.5%, 10.5% and 8.6% respectively. Benefiting from the rapid growth of rural income, the consumption potential of the rural market for upgrading has been effectively released, and the growth rate of retail sales of cosmetics and gold, silver and jewelry in rural units above designated size is 7.5 and 21.1 percentage points higher than that of urban areas, respectively.
With the continuous improvement of market supply, the gradual upgrading of residents' consumption structure, the concept of green environmental protection, and the consumption demand for green goods continues to be released. In the first half of the year, the retail sales of low-energy household appliances and audio-visual equipment in units above the quota increased by more than 20% year-on-year. According to the statistics of the Automobile Circulation Association, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the first half of the year were 3.09 million, an increase of 37.3%.
02 China's textile foreign trade needs to develop new machinery
Us media reported that China's share of US goods imports fell to the third place for the first time in nearly 15 years. In 2009, China surpassed Canada as the largest importer of goods to the United States, but it has now been overtaken by Mexico and Canada.
Trade statistics from the US Department of Commerce show that from January to May 2023, the amount of goods imported by the US from China was 168.6 billion US dollars, down 24% year-on-year, accounting for 13% of its total imports, 3.5 percentage points lower than the same period in 2022.
At the same time, U.S. imports from Mexico rose 5 percent from $184.5 billion in the same period in 2022 to $195 billion, or 15 percent from 14 percent. The US statistics differ from China's. According to the website of China's Ministry of Commerce, in the first five months of 2023, Sino-US trade totaled $200.7 billion, down 15 percent from the same period last year.
According to Chinese statistics, Mexico has not replaced China as a large importer of goods to the United States.
According to Chinese Customs statistics, in the first half of 2023, the total value of China's import and export of goods trade was 20.1 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.1%, of which the import and export to the United States was 2.25 trillion yuan, down 8.4%. In dollar terms, the trade volume between China and the US in the first half of 2023 was 327.264 billion US dollars, down 14.5% year on year, of which China's exports to the US fell 17.9% year on year, and China's imports from the US fell 3.7% year on year.
There are two main reasons for the discrepancy in the statistics between China and the United States, which are due to technical factors.
First, the United States calculates exports based on the price of goods shipped offshore and imports based on the price of goods shipped onshore. There is a difference between CIF and FOB calculations. One is freight, such as air transport, ocean transport freight, and the other is insurance.
In addition, there may be some errors in re-export trade, for example, if a batch of goods is re-exported through Singapore, China may count it as exports to Singapore, and when traders transfer the goods to the United States, the United States counts it as imports from China according to the rules of origin.
Although the two data differences, but to a certain extent also reflects the peak of Sino-US trade is no longer, this trend shift is driven by the economic cycle, trade rules and geopolitical factors.
China continues to dominate global trade
Data show that since 2023, China's exports to European countries have declined to varying degrees, and China's export curve to the United States and European Union countries is almost synchronous, which is partly because of the negative impact of interest rate hikes on the economic growth of developed countries.
By contrast, China shares a surplus red line with most other emerging countries, with an increasing share of Chinese exports going to regions such as the Middle East and Latin America, reflecting the strengthening of economic ties as China invests in natural resources.
The surge in exports to Russia also reflects the close ties between China and Russia, as well as the impact of Western sanctions on Russian imports. China has also been successful in exporting cheap electric cars and smartphones to emerging markets, crowding out expensive Western alternatives.
China continues to dominate global trade as it pushes deeper into markets outside the United States. China's share of global merchandise exports was 14.4 percent in 2022, up from 13 percent the year before the pandemic and 11 percent in 2012, according to the World Trade Organization.
In 2022, the United States accounted for 8.3% of total global merchandise exports, while Germany accounted for 6.6%. It is worth noting that the trade volume of Mexico, the manufacturing center of the new trade order that China and the United States are trying to build, has maintained a growth trend in 2023, although the year-on-year growth rate is lower than in 2022, and this growth may partly explain the gap in Sino-US trade statistics.
Over the past few years, due to rising costs and the impact of tariffs, many Chinese companies have gone to Mexico to build factories, although the proportion of localized procurement has gradually increased, but many key parts still have to be imported from China.
These components imported from China are processed into finished products in Mexico and exported to the United States, achieving a degree of indirect exports, which may result in some Chinese products not being counted as exports to the United States. The same explanation applies to the growth of Chinese exports to some ASEAN countries.
China's foreign trade is dominated by manufacturing products, and it has exported a large number of textiles, electronic products and mechanical equipment, etc., occupying a very important position in the global supply chain. Moreover, the West has invested countless manufacturing costs in China, and these inputs are still difficult to be replaced in a short time.
In recent years, the RCEP regional market based on Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand and China as the growth engine has become increasingly prominent in the global textile and garment industry. The release of the policy dividend of RCEP will help reconstruct the industrial value chain in East Asia, accelerate the economic recovery process of various countries, and create more comprehensive and deeper opportunities for regional industrial cooperation in China.
The effects of weak consumption in the US and European markets, procurement diversion and Sino-US friction are running in parallel. On the basis of striving to stabilize and win orders from traditional developed economies, China's textile and garment foreign trade enterprises can actively explore the market of countries along the "Belt and Road".
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